LIKELY COMBINATIONS & PERMUTATIONS

Based on my predictions, various likely permutations and combinations
are :
1.If BJP gets the upper limit (103 seats) and BJSP gets the lower limit (18 seats) Uma Bharti would ask for a different CM ( other than Shivraj Singh ) and major portfolios.
2.If BJP gets the lower limit (98 seats) and BJSP gets the upper limit -(22seats) Uma Bharti may fancy becoming the CM supported by the BJP.
3. If BJP gets the middle limit(100 seats) and BJSP gets the middle limit(20seats) -Uma Bharti may be offered Chief ministership provided she joins the BJP.
4. If Congress gets the upper limit (93 seats) and SP(5 seats) and BSP too get the upper limit(12 seats) - then CONG and SP could form a coalition govt. with GGP & Others with BSP support from outside.
5. If Congress exceeds the upper limit (93 seats) and SP (5 seats) and BSP get the upper limit (12 seats) - then CONG. and SP could form a coalition govt. with BSP staying neutral.
6. REMOTE POSSIBILITY :If BJP gets less than its lower limit
(98 seats) and BJSP too gets lower than its lower limit (18 seats) then BSP might support BJP- to keep Congress out of power.
7.WILD POSSIBILITY : If Congress gets the lower limit (85 seats)
, BJSP the upper limit (22 seats) and SP(5 seats) then Congress alongwith SP would support Uma Bharti to become the CM.

N.B: In these elections BSP would be in a win-win situation. Its
response would depend upon how close these blocks (Cong -SP& BJP-BJSP ) get to the magic figure of 115.If it supports the former , it can extract some immediate benefits from the centre and if it bails out the latter , it can gain some points in the Lok Sabha elections.

FINAL PREDICTIONS

BJP is likely to win 98 - 103 seats ; Congress may garner between 85-93; BJSP would come in third with 18-22 seats and BSP may be the surprise package with 10 –12 seats.; SP could corner 3-5 seats and GGP could land up 2-4;others might secure 1-3 seats.

SUMMARY -ASSEMBLY ELECTIONS 2008

1.These elections were singularly dull - there was no wave and no undercurrent. ( neither pro nor anti ) My take is that there is a wave mostly in the case of major events ( viz. Emergency(1977), Babri Masjid demolition ,Bhopal gas tragedy etc. ) and an undercurrent builds up only over a period of time- both these preconditions were not met this time.

2. There were no major issues - ideally ,having somewhat managed the basic issues ofBiji - Sadak -Pani ( Electricity -Roads- Water ) the state's polity should've evolved to the next level issues of health and education but the parties shortsightedly chose to stick with the former.

3. Too many independents- it isn't a healthy sign ( esp. in assembly elections) as they split up crucial votes. In most cases they may not end up winning but may well make another candidate lose. ( At times the mainstream parties encourage them for precisely this reason). Some of the frivolous ones enter for their five minutes of fame or even to make a quick buck ( when the major candidates may pay them to withdraw ).Steps need to be taken to check (if not eliminate ) this mockery of our democracy -to discourage the cult of political entrepreneurs.

4.Too few women candidates - there is a conspiracy of silence among the major parties on this ; Congress had given reservation to women in Panchayats , BJP has announced 50% reservation in municipal bodies ; but when it comes to the assembly elections - competition being so tough - that winnability factor takes over and things remain the same. However, this is perhaps the last time that the mainstream parties can ignore the long pending legitimate demand of women.

5. Too few Muslim candidates- In MP, BJP didn't give ticket to even a single Muslim; Congress gave it to only a handful ;if one sixth of our populace doesn't find representation in proportion, it may create pan India space for a hardliner Muslim party.

6. Too many rebels - it may have something to do with delimitation and the fact that the emergence of new players has created a space but somewhere it has also to do with the singular lack of commitment to ideology.

7. Too few youth-like in the case of women and Muslims youth too have not got the kind of representation that they should have -lip service by all the parties notwithstanding . The few who've managed to land up tickets are politically linked - to their fathers or godfathers. It has a lot to do with the lack of political activity at the College/ University level. Given the fact that a substantial chunk of voters comprises youth, their low representation enhances the flaws of our democracy.

8..Manifestos - were published as an after thought in the last 10 days or so . And mostly were a sort of rebuttal to the other. BSP went to the other extreme of not having a manifesto at all. Both these have a long term impact on our polity - that of scuttling the political debate or not having it at all.

9. Many new techniques( not always commendable ) were applied this time out viz. addressing the rallies on mobile phone ; hiring political workers , using children in campaign, releasing ads on spitritual chhanels etc..

10 The lack of zing this time out is also due to the abridged notification period .

11.. Electioneering was more focused in slums and rural areas - the middle classes were not as active participants as they ought to be( esp. in an assembly e lections ).

12. Media lacked maturity (Viz. the use of the hideous concept of impact feature.) - it is all the more reprehensible given that it MP is a developing state and needs responsible press more than others. 13. Relatively peaceful elections- in paticular due to the comparitively peaceful Chambal region. ( Sunil Nayak's murder was an aberration ).

14.Overall higher percentage but marginally less voters ; higher percentage by women and some rural areas - all this points to a slight anti - incumbency against the BJP.

15 Dummy candidates have been used not merely as covers but also to hedge expenses etc. This needs to be sorted out.

16. Relative disconnect of the major parties with the people - reflected in major issues not becoming key factors.(Viz.Coruption, malnutrition etc. )

FIVE MAJOR PREDICTIONS OF THIS BLOG

1.BJP is likely to win 85-98 seats ; Congress may garner between 77-88; BJSP would perhaps come in third with 18 –22 seats and BSP may be the surprise package with 8-10 seats; SP could corner 3-5 seats and GGP could land up 2-4.

2.Shivraj Singh will last as the CM for a maximum of one year, if at all . If Uma Bharti gets enough seats to arm twist the BJP, the least she would demand is a new CM. Even otherwise, once the elections have been won , the aspirations of those grassroot leaders who see Shivraj as a paratrooper will view it as the last chance to grab the top spot. Pretenders include Kailash Vijayvargiya , Narendra Singh Tomar , Anup Mishra , Gauri Shankar Shejwar, Himmat Kothari with Jayant Mallaya being the dark horse.
3.A fallout of this will be that Congress will gain relatively in the Lok Sabha elections . ( Since the Hindutva votes would have reached their limit in the assembly polls and the votes of the minor parties would get transferred to the Congress ).This would be a diversion from the trends of previous elections.
4. Most of the sitting /Ex-MP's who've been fielded would lose.
5 This election onwards, coalitions would become a regular feature in Madhya Pradesh - nascent post poll alliances this time ; pre poll alliances led by the major national parties in the next elections ; and if the big national parties do not reinvent themselves in the state- alliances led by regional parties could not be a farfetched idea within the next decade.

ONLY MEDIA, NO JOURNALISM

Media( Esp. Regional media ) has played a bit role in the subversion of democracy in MP. Earlier too, it was an open secret that during elections ( in particular ) a few journalists do the cash for publishing stuff. However , their numbers have grown to the extent that one is forced to echo the recent outpouring of a senior journalist who said "Where is journalism left in India ? It is all merely media now. ". Even leading newspapers and TV channels have become brazen about it in that they've gone full hog for the hideous concept of impact features ( carrying hyped misleading public relations material in the garb of news thus misleading a certain unsuspecting section of the electorate ) . Furthermore , journalism used to have some pretensions of being an intellectual pursuit - something which it has altogether given up ( Earlier journalists were supposed to be " Buddhijeevi": earning their living by the intellect ; now they're mostly " Shramjeevi " : living by labour ). During the elections, journalists ( print journalists in particular ) used to shape/influence the agenda rather than merely report it (as is the case now). This time out too there were some steps in positive direction viz. a move by some newspapers to build a public agenda by seeking public opinion. However, nobody has covered all the three things - reporting public opinion( what the public wants), carrying leaders agenda ( what do the leaders stand for ) as also
educating people ( what ought to be done ). In particular, the last aspect is a casualty - hence most Editors have been dispensed with or have become managers or managers operate as Editors. Till , all three aspects are covered , journalism's role in helping voters to make an informed/ educated choice will remain marginal. To that extent our democracy will continue to remain seriously flawed. Thus , in these elections we have mostly media , little journalism.

CAMPAIGN

BJP'S campaign as always has been much more tech savvy ( LED's , addressing people on cellphones et al ); much better use of the new media ( SMS , social networking sites etc. ). Congress has done only marginally better this time with an engineer being at the helm but is still not upto the mark. Besides, it has not been able to utilise its traditional strengths of audio canvassing and door to door campaign -for, these require much longer time which the party never had.
Campaign in the past two elections has been rather strange in MP - till the very last phase it appears to be a relatively smooth ride for the ruling party but as the D-Day approaches a strong undercurrent builds up for the opposition. This happens only when the incumbent government is walking on thin ice - in not having done "real" work relative to the hype. It was the case in Digvijay's second term as also to some extent in Shivraj's half term. ( On the other hand it may not work all that much in Chhattisgarh since Raman Singh has done substantive work and also had a full term to do it). In a way a somnambulant opposition during the term is a double edged sword-While on the one hand it reduces the chances of change in power ( esp. if the incumbent government does good work ), on the other it puts the ruling party in a sort of a lull bordering on overconfidence ( in particular if the team comprises inexperienced/non-grassroots/ mediocre members)

SHIVRAJ TO BE STOP GAP CM -IF AT ALL

Shivraj Singh will last as the CM for a maximum of one year, if at all . If Uma Bharti gets enough seats to arm twist the BJP, the least she would demand is a new CM. Even otherwise, once the elections have been won , the aspirations of those grassroot leaders who see Shivraj as a paratrooper will view it as the last chance to grab the top spot. Pretenders include Kailash Vijayvargiya , Narendra Singh Tomar , Anup Mishra , Gauri Shankar Shejwar, Himmat Kothari with Jayant Mallaya being the dark horse.

MANIFESTOS

Manifestos have been published almost as an afterthought ( in the last 10 days or so ) by the two major parties. That too mostly as a rebuttal to the other. Congress brought out a charge sheet first - and rightly so. However , my view is that the party should’ve published an abridged charge sheet much in advance ( esp. about the issues on which BJP couldn’t have taken remedial measures) – which they didn’t . To say that public has a short memory and hence raise the issues at the last moment doesn’t wash .For, even if that is the case – it is precisely the duty of the opposition party not to let it go out of public memory.
On the other hand, BJP should’ve published its draft manifesto- a report card of sorts - much earlier ( highlighting the achievements which couldn’t be denied ) much earlier. To some extent they did by having a well mounted media campaign. However, the final BJP manifesto contains much of the same thing : Bijli Sadak Pani ( an extrapolation of it viz . making four lane roads, electricity round the clock in villages , water policy etc. ) barring a few new things such as making MP a biotech state , promoting Ayurvedic medicine by opening Ayurvedic clinics in rural areas, making every village a Patwari Halka , providing forest based jobs to tribal youth etc. My take on this that BJP is not all that good on providing a vision- it being a party of traders & techhies who are more cued to the applied aspects ( A corollary of this attitude is that it breeds greater corruption since this class is focused on getting the work done irrespective of the means ).
Congress manifesto too doesn't show any great state specific vision - In most parts, it is an extension of their policies at the centre ( viz. providing dole to the educated unemployed youth - an extension of NREGP ) or an extrapolation of the BJP govt.'s policies (giving wheat to the poor/ very poor at 1-2 rupee a kilo; giving 2 lakh rupees to the girl child on maturity ). Election after election manifestos of both the major parties look suspiciously similar - not merely in content but most of the time even in the design. Even their advertisements look so alike that a printer's devil of exchanging their logos may go unnoticed. It is understandable to some extent given the fact that the parties do not differ substantially in the major issues. However ,this is exactly what is creating a space for smaller parties with regional /sectoral outlook. Thus if the major parties do not reinvent themselves in the state soon a coalition era followed by the national parties playing second fiddle may not be farfetched.
The highlight of Congress manifesto is that the party has desperately tried to regain and retain its traditional vote banks in the state - tribals & muslims. They've promised Tantya Bhil University for tribal Languages & dialects as also setting up of a medical college for traditional tribal medicine; for muslims , the party has promised implementation of Sacchar committee report as also assistance to madrasas for imparting modern education.
Other interesting tit bits include : coming up with fancy wordplay : the term "very poor" for instance; abolishing SDO's power to remove elected Sarpanch and creation of youth brigades for environment protection .Strangely no mention of how to cope with the crisis the economy .
The manifesto is general in areas in which it should've been specific( viz. industry, tourism , sports etc. ) and specific where a general statement would've been called for ( viz. 2 lakh rupees to a girl child on maturity, 1 lakh jobs to the rural poor etc. ) specific promises in these areas call for trouble as the finances for these do not add up and riders have to be invariably introdced later.

MADHYA PRADESH ASSEMBLY ELECTIONS 2008

HOBSON’S CHOICE : BJP BAD, CONGRESS WORSE

Shashidhar. S.Kapur

The five yearly political stock taking ritual is here. Is it any different this time out or is it more of the same thing? Let’s check it out.BJP came to power riding on BSP ( Bijli Sadak Pani , that is ). And Congress fell so hard from the saddle that it lost its front teeth - the party was not merely defeated but almost decimated. The setback was so unexpected for the Congress that its leader went into a limbo and the foot soldiers were too numbed to gather the pieces and regroup. In some ways the victory was equally unexpected for the BJP - at least the extent of it. So much so that its first CM lost all sense of proportion in that the party visualized cow as the vehicle for the expressway of progress and cowdung as the answer to the energy crisis. The system went into such a spin that only a divine intervention by the courts ( no pun intended ) saved the day. By that time the system – bureaucrats in particular were in such a tizzy that they saw a saviour in the completely slothful next CM. Of course all this while the state stood at the same place where it was at the beginning of the term - an announcement a day about various development schemes notwithstanding. With almost half the term frittered away- the government would’ve been brought to its knees in any other time but Congress’ extended mourning provided a lifeline to the government. This time out the quasi- divine forces ( BJP high command ) intervened and airdropped the present CM with the foresight that whatever he’d do would be better than before. The half term of present CM means less anti incumbency- which combined with somnambulant opposition has made these elections arguably the dullest ever - completely lacking in zing .There are hardly any charismatic leaders, no election fever worth the name and electioneering has become relatively impersonal with activity limited to party offices, media and mass meetings. The present elections are also likely to be different creating a space for alliances ; whereas pre- poll ones, if any, will be based on realpolitic ( viz. SP & BJSP ; BSP & GGP ) post poll alliances will be opportunistic and will come into existence only if the projections go too awry.

Perhaps this is an indicator of the future shape of Indian Democracy : big multiparty alliances at the centre ; smaller alliances at the states ; individual parties contesting the Municipal elections and party less elections in the Panchayats ( almost the contrapositive of the U.S.)

As for how the MP elections are different from other states - they are far less polarized ( since the major parties are placed on a continuum than on opposite poles ) ,there is much less violence ( the region has little history of conflicts), role of money is comparatively less ( after all . it isn’t a rich state) , casteism is a minor card ( casteism works in those areas where it has been rooted for ages ); on the other hand, national issues do have significant impact ( since only national parties are the major players), as does communalism ( Hindutva as also Muslim appeasement ) and vote bank politics ( Esp. those of tribals )…The issues on which parties are likely to fight are - performance , corruption, inflation , development , terrorism, nuclear deal…Whereas BJP will hype its performance and push the development agenda while accusing the Central government of discriminationand seeking POTA and inflation, Congress is going to harp on the corruption and misrule ( SIMI included) while highlighting the achievements of the Central government - NREGP, RTI, OBC reservations, Agricultural loan waiver, Nuclear deal etc…Some topical issues such as malnutrition deaths , terrorism as also last minute defections may have some impact on the fence – sitting voters.As for the minor parties they’re in the fray with a long term view (of Lok Sabha Elections) as also to increase their influence in pockets - SP in Vindhya & Mahakoshal and BSP in Madhya Bharat ( Gwalior & Chambal regions ).

To my mind a Regional ruling party should be judged primarily on performance & deliverance ( since Vision & Mission is more apt at the national level ). GDP, growth in industry , science & tech. ( in particular application of tech . viz. e- governance) sports , are some of the major parameters of performance .On these counts the current govt., is at best average - the GDP has grown at roughly half the national rate ( in the past decade) , MOU’s notwithstanding the industrial growth is average and skewed ( a developing state is judged primarily by its performance in SME’s -small & medium enterprises - since mega plants are mostly location neutral, involve the upper crust and impact the marginalised )and its overall rating too has slipped marginally.

One way of evaluating deliverance is GDW ( Gross domestic well being --as initiated in UK) - it measures the delivery aspect through major indicators of development (infrastructure development in particular), law and order situation , investment etc. Perhaps the way the existing resources are utilized is also a pointer. Say, for instance Tourism- it is more of hype than real thing in the state– a clever juggling of statistics ( Taking its nadir at the end of the last regime as the base ) combined with smooth PR. In Madhya Pradesh it is evaluated on the basis of- internal ,local & international Tourism – in that order of weightage . The rating in these sections has been above average, below average & average respectively. It means an overall rating of average in an area where nothing less than excellent would do. Thus overall, on the GDW front this regime has only done somewhat better- marginally better than the national average (eventhough its rate of infrastructure development has dipped a bit).

A political party is also evaluated on perception - work should not only be done but also be seen to be done ; succour should not merely be provided but must be timely and in a just manner. One of the indicators of this perception is GDH : Gross Domestic Happiness ( as introduced by Bhutan). It is reflected in major HDI (Human development indices)- healthcare; education( esp. female literacy ) etc.; financial self - reliance; a pristine environment (Conservation ) ; preserving local culture and democracy( has it become inclusive and reduced disparity).On this count MP has done below par-healthcare is in a shambles ( both through ineptitude & corruption ); primary education is a mess ( Primarily due to ineptitude); merely providing soft loans doesn’t bring about financial self - reliance ( human resources have to be developed correspondingly );MP’s status as a cultural hub has been diluted in this period by petty mindedness and lack of taste ; though democracy has become somewhat inclusive - its credit is due to the previous government which institutionalized the Panchayati Raj ; reduction in disparity is reflected in the state of the weakest and most vulnerable- in this case women , tribals , elderly and children-the present government has taken significant initiatives for women ( though the jury is still out on it ) but tribals have received tokenisms ( merely distributing land pattas under the Central government Act has little meaning unless matched with human resource development ); as for child welfare - the incumbent regime has tripped badly (malnutrition deaths are only a symptom). My Take is that GDP should be calculated at the pan state level, GDW by taking the erstwhile states as units ( esp. for checking regional imbalances) and GDH by taking the cultural regions as basis ( evaluating in particular for disparity). Furthermore, a state government is judged by GDP & GDW getting equal weightage and GDH being a secondary indicator .By that count the present government barely makes the grade .With the result that the state is “developing” but not “growing”. That it is showing an upward swing statistically - in absolute terms( quantitatively) but qualitatively (relative to other states) its position has not changed. The point is that in Madhya Pradesh neither the Punjab Model nor the Kerala approach will work – the state has to design its own model and evolve its tailormade approach (of course you have to take into note the best practices of other states too but you simply can’t transplant them ).On the other hand, a regional opposition party is evaluated not so much by its mission as by its role –play in keeping the government upon its toes by opposing its wrongful moves , in exposing its corruption as also by how well they can spread the word about central govt. initiatives ( if their party rules the centre) . On all the three counts the Congress party in Madhya Pradesh has failed miserably.In particular , corruption should’ve been fought more aggressively- there were many instances of corruption in health , education, irrigation as also cases galore involving individual moral turpitude ( Rajesh Rajora , Yogiraj Sharma, Kamlakar Singh, Prof. Sabharwal case, Dumper case , Anil Dave land allotment case et al. )- giving the impression that either the accused mastered corruption management or Congress was handicapped by its small number of legislators. This however does not wash in that no major political party functions only through the legislators - its workers are the backbone , Thus it implies that the party structure of Congress has become defunct at the grassroots.The performance on the schemes funded by the center but executed by the state is another grey area. It is largely a factor of the personal clout of senior politicians & bureaucrats - on that front too there is not much to speak about in the political firmament of Madhya Pradesh. Whereas BJP was lackadaisical in the implementation front , Congress was less than vigilant in monitoring. The mishandling of funds for the schemes of child nutrition is a case in point.Since the difference in the vote percentage of the two major parties is small - the committed voters neutralize each other. Hence, it is the leadership and the choice of candidates which make a difference . To my mind , the non- committed( esp. the middle classes/middle aged ) are somewhat swayed by the leadership and the younger voters are more inclined to go by the choice of candidate. In choosing the candidate “selectivity” ( the candidate’s track record , image & ideology) ought to be a major criteria than mere “electability”. Though the leadership in both the parties has been airdropped ( sans grassroots) BJP scores marginally in the manner of choosing the candidates.Regional leadership is to be judged on how much and how earlythey can anticipate and fulfill ( even if partially ) people’s aspirations - the current government has displayed this quality to the hilt. The opposition leadership is rated on how well they can articulate peoples grievances - on which Congress has lacked the requisite empathy.The overall verdict thus is that BJP will pass the exam with grace marks whereas Congress would flunk and will have to repeat the same class. Thus this time out , it remains a Hobson’s choice for the voters - one eyed BJP scoring over the blind Congress. The angularities of these elections will be that BJSP would do to BJP what GGP did to Congress the last time out - it’ll not win many seats but will play the spoilsport in quite a few. Congress will shoot itself in the foot and accede more space to marginal players despite gaining in seats overall. This will pave way for alliances next time out- in a way it’ll be healthier for the democratic process in MP in the long term although in the short term the state will stagnate. A side benefit of this will be that Congress will gain relatively in the Lok Sabha elections . ( since the Hindutva votes would have reached their limit in the assembly polls and the votes of the minor parties would get transfered to the Congress ).In fact , the way they’ve gone about things shows no deep seated belief about a realistic chance of victory in the assembly polls.It is a sad story for the state is on the threshold of infrastructural development .Unfortunately the present regime has neither the vision nor expertise to take the state onto the next stage . Thus eventhough MP would develop in absolute terms - statistically speaking ( on GDW parameters), it will not experience the kind of growth ( in relative terms ) which will put it in the place it deserves on account of its size, resources and population. Just as India is most likely to achieve its rightful place by 2050 MP too would take its own sweet time –2020 vision is likely to prove shortsighted .Unless there is Human Resource development ( not merely growth ) and the middle classes get associated with the political process, all the hype about taking the state in to the top league in the near future will remain just that - hype. Madhya Pradesh will remain a laggard - always trying to catch up with the frontrunner states rather than lap them up.

ADDENDUM

P. S; (i) A minor difference in these polls would be the active participation of people’s organization in the electoral process ( Viz. Samajwadi Janparishad contesting 6 seats). My take on this is that it is perhaps not the done thing for political activists - attuned tokeeping the powers in check – to become part of the power structure. Maoists coming to power in Nepal is a similar thing but not same since all said and done they’re a political party after all.

P. S : (ii ) It is rare to have Lok Ayukta cases against so many members of a cabinet as also it is unusual to have a high proportion of their kin involved in legal or moral turpitude.

P. S : (iii) At the end of the day the Hindutva vote share ( Perhaps also the seats ) will remain intact- those dissatisfied with the BJP will vote for BJSP instead of Congress( as the case used to be).

P. S : (iv ) Recent surveys by two national magazines ( India Today & outlook ) validate my point – the first one is based on GDP indicators and the second is on the basis of GDW/ HDI . While in the first one establishes MP as a clearly laggard state, the second one shows it in a much better light ( a shade behind the traditionally developed states ).

P.S. (v ) : Another angularity this time out is that some of the current and ex- MP’s vying for MLA’s ticket - mostly due to changes brought about by the delimitation wherein either their constituency has been reserved or vice versa ( or wiped out ) or creation of new constituencies has rekindled their hopes .

P.S. (vi ) : At the risk of putting one’s neck on the block , a rough and ready prediction ( based on inputs from across the state) at this point in time is that BJP is likely to win 100 - 115 seats ; Congress may garner between 70-80; BJSP would come in third with 15 –20 seats and BSP may be the surprise package with 10 –12 seats. Of course, the prediction will be finetuned as the electioneering progresses for greater accuracy.

P.S. (vii ) : The general impression about Shivraj Singh is that he is well intentioned and reasonably efficient . However, the opinion about his colleagues is quite unflattering ; Hence there is an undercurrent of anti incumbency against them. In many cases it the social strata they’ve come from – the disproportionate increase in their financial status does not go well down the party workers.

P.S. (viii ) : Having completed its full term for the first time BJP has somewhat changed the perception that they do not know how to rule; on the other hand Congress has further cemented the view that they have yet to learn how to play the role of a good opposition ( something which was their forte in the pre-independence era)