Sunday, December 7, 2008

LIKELY COMBINATIONS & PERMUTATIONS

Based on my predictions, various likely permutations and combinations
are :
1.If BJP gets the upper limit (103 seats) and BJSP gets the lower limit (18 seats) Uma Bharti would ask for a different CM ( other than Shivraj Singh ) and major portfolios.
2.If BJP gets the lower limit (98 seats) and BJSP gets the upper limit -(22seats) Uma Bharti may fancy becoming the CM supported by the BJP.
3. If BJP gets the middle limit(100 seats) and BJSP gets the middle limit(20seats) -Uma Bharti may be offered Chief ministership provided she joins the BJP.
4. If Congress gets the upper limit (93 seats) and SP(5 seats) and BSP too get the upper limit(12 seats) - then CONG and SP could form a coalition govt. with GGP & Others with BSP support from outside.
5. If Congress exceeds the upper limit (93 seats) and SP (5 seats) and BSP get the upper limit (12 seats) - then CONG. and SP could form a coalition govt. with BSP staying neutral.
6. REMOTE POSSIBILITY :If BJP gets less than its lower limit
(98 seats) and BJSP too gets lower than its lower limit (18 seats) then BSP might support BJP- to keep Congress out of power.
7.WILD POSSIBILITY : If Congress gets the lower limit (85 seats)
, BJSP the upper limit (22 seats) and SP(5 seats) then Congress alongwith SP would support Uma Bharti to become the CM.

N.B: In these elections BSP would be in a win-win situation. Its
response would depend upon how close these blocks (Cong -SP& BJP-BJSP ) get to the magic figure of 115.If it supports the former , it can extract some immediate benefits from the centre and if it bails out the latter , it can gain some points in the Lok Sabha elections.

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