MADHYA PRADESH ASSEMBLY ELECTIONS 2008

HOBSON’S CHOICE : BJP BAD, CONGRESS WORSE

Shashidhar. S.Kapur

The five yearly political stock taking ritual is here. Is it any different this time out or is it more of the same thing? Let’s check it out.BJP came to power riding on BSP ( Bijli Sadak Pani , that is ). And Congress fell so hard from the saddle that it lost its front teeth - the party was not merely defeated but almost decimated. The setback was so unexpected for the Congress that its leader went into a limbo and the foot soldiers were too numbed to gather the pieces and regroup. In some ways the victory was equally unexpected for the BJP - at least the extent of it. So much so that its first CM lost all sense of proportion in that the party visualized cow as the vehicle for the expressway of progress and cowdung as the answer to the energy crisis. The system went into such a spin that only a divine intervention by the courts ( no pun intended ) saved the day. By that time the system – bureaucrats in particular were in such a tizzy that they saw a saviour in the completely slothful next CM. Of course all this while the state stood at the same place where it was at the beginning of the term - an announcement a day about various development schemes notwithstanding. With almost half the term frittered away- the government would’ve been brought to its knees in any other time but Congress’ extended mourning provided a lifeline to the government. This time out the quasi- divine forces ( BJP high command ) intervened and airdropped the present CM with the foresight that whatever he’d do would be better than before. The half term of present CM means less anti incumbency- which combined with somnambulant opposition has made these elections arguably the dullest ever - completely lacking in zing .There are hardly any charismatic leaders, no election fever worth the name and electioneering has become relatively impersonal with activity limited to party offices, media and mass meetings. The present elections are also likely to be different creating a space for alliances ; whereas pre- poll ones, if any, will be based on realpolitic ( viz. SP & BJSP ; BSP & GGP ) post poll alliances will be opportunistic and will come into existence only if the projections go too awry.

Perhaps this is an indicator of the future shape of Indian Democracy : big multiparty alliances at the centre ; smaller alliances at the states ; individual parties contesting the Municipal elections and party less elections in the Panchayats ( almost the contrapositive of the U.S.)

As for how the MP elections are different from other states - they are far less polarized ( since the major parties are placed on a continuum than on opposite poles ) ,there is much less violence ( the region has little history of conflicts), role of money is comparatively less ( after all . it isn’t a rich state) , casteism is a minor card ( casteism works in those areas where it has been rooted for ages ); on the other hand, national issues do have significant impact ( since only national parties are the major players), as does communalism ( Hindutva as also Muslim appeasement ) and vote bank politics ( Esp. those of tribals )…The issues on which parties are likely to fight are - performance , corruption, inflation , development , terrorism, nuclear deal…Whereas BJP will hype its performance and push the development agenda while accusing the Central government of discriminationand seeking POTA and inflation, Congress is going to harp on the corruption and misrule ( SIMI included) while highlighting the achievements of the Central government - NREGP, RTI, OBC reservations, Agricultural loan waiver, Nuclear deal etc…Some topical issues such as malnutrition deaths , terrorism as also last minute defections may have some impact on the fence – sitting voters.As for the minor parties they’re in the fray with a long term view (of Lok Sabha Elections) as also to increase their influence in pockets - SP in Vindhya & Mahakoshal and BSP in Madhya Bharat ( Gwalior & Chambal regions ).

To my mind a Regional ruling party should be judged primarily on performance & deliverance ( since Vision & Mission is more apt at the national level ). GDP, growth in industry , science & tech. ( in particular application of tech . viz. e- governance) sports , are some of the major parameters of performance .On these counts the current govt., is at best average - the GDP has grown at roughly half the national rate ( in the past decade) , MOU’s notwithstanding the industrial growth is average and skewed ( a developing state is judged primarily by its performance in SME’s -small & medium enterprises - since mega plants are mostly location neutral, involve the upper crust and impact the marginalised )and its overall rating too has slipped marginally.

One way of evaluating deliverance is GDW ( Gross domestic well being --as initiated in UK) - it measures the delivery aspect through major indicators of development (infrastructure development in particular), law and order situation , investment etc. Perhaps the way the existing resources are utilized is also a pointer. Say, for instance Tourism- it is more of hype than real thing in the state– a clever juggling of statistics ( Taking its nadir at the end of the last regime as the base ) combined with smooth PR. In Madhya Pradesh it is evaluated on the basis of- internal ,local & international Tourism – in that order of weightage . The rating in these sections has been above average, below average & average respectively. It means an overall rating of average in an area where nothing less than excellent would do. Thus overall, on the GDW front this regime has only done somewhat better- marginally better than the national average (eventhough its rate of infrastructure development has dipped a bit).

A political party is also evaluated on perception - work should not only be done but also be seen to be done ; succour should not merely be provided but must be timely and in a just manner. One of the indicators of this perception is GDH : Gross Domestic Happiness ( as introduced by Bhutan). It is reflected in major HDI (Human development indices)- healthcare; education( esp. female literacy ) etc.; financial self - reliance; a pristine environment (Conservation ) ; preserving local culture and democracy( has it become inclusive and reduced disparity).On this count MP has done below par-healthcare is in a shambles ( both through ineptitude & corruption ); primary education is a mess ( Primarily due to ineptitude); merely providing soft loans doesn’t bring about financial self - reliance ( human resources have to be developed correspondingly );MP’s status as a cultural hub has been diluted in this period by petty mindedness and lack of taste ; though democracy has become somewhat inclusive - its credit is due to the previous government which institutionalized the Panchayati Raj ; reduction in disparity is reflected in the state of the weakest and most vulnerable- in this case women , tribals , elderly and children-the present government has taken significant initiatives for women ( though the jury is still out on it ) but tribals have received tokenisms ( merely distributing land pattas under the Central government Act has little meaning unless matched with human resource development ); as for child welfare - the incumbent regime has tripped badly (malnutrition deaths are only a symptom). My Take is that GDP should be calculated at the pan state level, GDW by taking the erstwhile states as units ( esp. for checking regional imbalances) and GDH by taking the cultural regions as basis ( evaluating in particular for disparity). Furthermore, a state government is judged by GDP & GDW getting equal weightage and GDH being a secondary indicator .By that count the present government barely makes the grade .With the result that the state is “developing” but not “growing”. That it is showing an upward swing statistically - in absolute terms( quantitatively) but qualitatively (relative to other states) its position has not changed. The point is that in Madhya Pradesh neither the Punjab Model nor the Kerala approach will work – the state has to design its own model and evolve its tailormade approach (of course you have to take into note the best practices of other states too but you simply can’t transplant them ).On the other hand, a regional opposition party is evaluated not so much by its mission as by its role –play in keeping the government upon its toes by opposing its wrongful moves , in exposing its corruption as also by how well they can spread the word about central govt. initiatives ( if their party rules the centre) . On all the three counts the Congress party in Madhya Pradesh has failed miserably.In particular , corruption should’ve been fought more aggressively- there were many instances of corruption in health , education, irrigation as also cases galore involving individual moral turpitude ( Rajesh Rajora , Yogiraj Sharma, Kamlakar Singh, Prof. Sabharwal case, Dumper case , Anil Dave land allotment case et al. )- giving the impression that either the accused mastered corruption management or Congress was handicapped by its small number of legislators. This however does not wash in that no major political party functions only through the legislators - its workers are the backbone , Thus it implies that the party structure of Congress has become defunct at the grassroots.The performance on the schemes funded by the center but executed by the state is another grey area. It is largely a factor of the personal clout of senior politicians & bureaucrats - on that front too there is not much to speak about in the political firmament of Madhya Pradesh. Whereas BJP was lackadaisical in the implementation front , Congress was less than vigilant in monitoring. The mishandling of funds for the schemes of child nutrition is a case in point.Since the difference in the vote percentage of the two major parties is small - the committed voters neutralize each other. Hence, it is the leadership and the choice of candidates which make a difference . To my mind , the non- committed( esp. the middle classes/middle aged ) are somewhat swayed by the leadership and the younger voters are more inclined to go by the choice of candidate. In choosing the candidate “selectivity” ( the candidate’s track record , image & ideology) ought to be a major criteria than mere “electability”. Though the leadership in both the parties has been airdropped ( sans grassroots) BJP scores marginally in the manner of choosing the candidates.Regional leadership is to be judged on how much and how earlythey can anticipate and fulfill ( even if partially ) people’s aspirations - the current government has displayed this quality to the hilt. The opposition leadership is rated on how well they can articulate peoples grievances - on which Congress has lacked the requisite empathy.The overall verdict thus is that BJP will pass the exam with grace marks whereas Congress would flunk and will have to repeat the same class. Thus this time out , it remains a Hobson’s choice for the voters - one eyed BJP scoring over the blind Congress. The angularities of these elections will be that BJSP would do to BJP what GGP did to Congress the last time out - it’ll not win many seats but will play the spoilsport in quite a few. Congress will shoot itself in the foot and accede more space to marginal players despite gaining in seats overall. This will pave way for alliances next time out- in a way it’ll be healthier for the democratic process in MP in the long term although in the short term the state will stagnate. A side benefit of this will be that Congress will gain relatively in the Lok Sabha elections . ( since the Hindutva votes would have reached their limit in the assembly polls and the votes of the minor parties would get transfered to the Congress ).In fact , the way they’ve gone about things shows no deep seated belief about a realistic chance of victory in the assembly polls.It is a sad story for the state is on the threshold of infrastructural development .Unfortunately the present regime has neither the vision nor expertise to take the state onto the next stage . Thus eventhough MP would develop in absolute terms - statistically speaking ( on GDW parameters), it will not experience the kind of growth ( in relative terms ) which will put it in the place it deserves on account of its size, resources and population. Just as India is most likely to achieve its rightful place by 2050 MP too would take its own sweet time –2020 vision is likely to prove shortsighted .Unless there is Human Resource development ( not merely growth ) and the middle classes get associated with the political process, all the hype about taking the state in to the top league in the near future will remain just that - hype. Madhya Pradesh will remain a laggard - always trying to catch up with the frontrunner states rather than lap them up.

ADDENDUM

P. S; (i) A minor difference in these polls would be the active participation of people’s organization in the electoral process ( Viz. Samajwadi Janparishad contesting 6 seats). My take on this is that it is perhaps not the done thing for political activists - attuned tokeeping the powers in check – to become part of the power structure. Maoists coming to power in Nepal is a similar thing but not same since all said and done they’re a political party after all.

P. S : (ii ) It is rare to have Lok Ayukta cases against so many members of a cabinet as also it is unusual to have a high proportion of their kin involved in legal or moral turpitude.

P. S : (iii) At the end of the day the Hindutva vote share ( Perhaps also the seats ) will remain intact- those dissatisfied with the BJP will vote for BJSP instead of Congress( as the case used to be).

P. S : (iv ) Recent surveys by two national magazines ( India Today & outlook ) validate my point – the first one is based on GDP indicators and the second is on the basis of GDW/ HDI . While in the first one establishes MP as a clearly laggard state, the second one shows it in a much better light ( a shade behind the traditionally developed states ).

P.S. (v ) : Another angularity this time out is that some of the current and ex- MP’s vying for MLA’s ticket - mostly due to changes brought about by the delimitation wherein either their constituency has been reserved or vice versa ( or wiped out ) or creation of new constituencies has rekindled their hopes .

P.S. (vi ) : At the risk of putting one’s neck on the block , a rough and ready prediction ( based on inputs from across the state) at this point in time is that BJP is likely to win 100 - 115 seats ; Congress may garner between 70-80; BJSP would come in third with 15 –20 seats and BSP may be the surprise package with 10 –12 seats. Of course, the prediction will be finetuned as the electioneering progresses for greater accuracy.

P.S. (vii ) : The general impression about Shivraj Singh is that he is well intentioned and reasonably efficient . However, the opinion about his colleagues is quite unflattering ; Hence there is an undercurrent of anti incumbency against them. In many cases it the social strata they’ve come from – the disproportionate increase in their financial status does not go well down the party workers.

P.S. (viii ) : Having completed its full term for the first time BJP has somewhat changed the perception that they do not know how to rule; on the other hand Congress has further cemented the view that they have yet to learn how to play the role of a good opposition ( something which was their forte in the pre-independence era)