LIKELY COMBINATIONS & PERMUTATIONS

Based on my predictions, various likely permutations and combinations
are :
1.If BJP gets the upper limit (103 seats) and BJSP gets the lower limit (18 seats) Uma Bharti would ask for a different CM ( other than Shivraj Singh ) and major portfolios.
2.If BJP gets the lower limit (98 seats) and BJSP gets the upper limit -(22seats) Uma Bharti may fancy becoming the CM supported by the BJP.
3. If BJP gets the middle limit(100 seats) and BJSP gets the middle limit(20seats) -Uma Bharti may be offered Chief ministership provided she joins the BJP.
4. If Congress gets the upper limit (93 seats) and SP(5 seats) and BSP too get the upper limit(12 seats) - then CONG and SP could form a coalition govt. with GGP & Others with BSP support from outside.
5. If Congress exceeds the upper limit (93 seats) and SP (5 seats) and BSP get the upper limit (12 seats) - then CONG. and SP could form a coalition govt. with BSP staying neutral.
6. REMOTE POSSIBILITY :If BJP gets less than its lower limit
(98 seats) and BJSP too gets lower than its lower limit (18 seats) then BSP might support BJP- to keep Congress out of power.
7.WILD POSSIBILITY : If Congress gets the lower limit (85 seats)
, BJSP the upper limit (22 seats) and SP(5 seats) then Congress alongwith SP would support Uma Bharti to become the CM.

N.B: In these elections BSP would be in a win-win situation. Its
response would depend upon how close these blocks (Cong -SP& BJP-BJSP ) get to the magic figure of 115.If it supports the former , it can extract some immediate benefits from the centre and if it bails out the latter , it can gain some points in the Lok Sabha elections.

FINAL PREDICTIONS

BJP is likely to win 98 - 103 seats ; Congress may garner between 85-93; BJSP would come in third with 18-22 seats and BSP may be the surprise package with 10 –12 seats.; SP could corner 3-5 seats and GGP could land up 2-4;others might secure 1-3 seats.

SUMMARY -ASSEMBLY ELECTIONS 2008

1.These elections were singularly dull - there was no wave and no undercurrent. ( neither pro nor anti ) My take is that there is a wave mostly in the case of major events ( viz. Emergency(1977), Babri Masjid demolition ,Bhopal gas tragedy etc. ) and an undercurrent builds up only over a period of time- both these preconditions were not met this time.

2. There were no major issues - ideally ,having somewhat managed the basic issues ofBiji - Sadak -Pani ( Electricity -Roads- Water ) the state's polity should've evolved to the next level issues of health and education but the parties shortsightedly chose to stick with the former.

3. Too many independents- it isn't a healthy sign ( esp. in assembly elections) as they split up crucial votes. In most cases they may not end up winning but may well make another candidate lose. ( At times the mainstream parties encourage them for precisely this reason). Some of the frivolous ones enter for their five minutes of fame or even to make a quick buck ( when the major candidates may pay them to withdraw ).Steps need to be taken to check (if not eliminate ) this mockery of our democracy -to discourage the cult of political entrepreneurs.

4.Too few women candidates - there is a conspiracy of silence among the major parties on this ; Congress had given reservation to women in Panchayats , BJP has announced 50% reservation in municipal bodies ; but when it comes to the assembly elections - competition being so tough - that winnability factor takes over and things remain the same. However, this is perhaps the last time that the mainstream parties can ignore the long pending legitimate demand of women.

5. Too few Muslim candidates- In MP, BJP didn't give ticket to even a single Muslim; Congress gave it to only a handful ;if one sixth of our populace doesn't find representation in proportion, it may create pan India space for a hardliner Muslim party.

6. Too many rebels - it may have something to do with delimitation and the fact that the emergence of new players has created a space but somewhere it has also to do with the singular lack of commitment to ideology.

7. Too few youth-like in the case of women and Muslims youth too have not got the kind of representation that they should have -lip service by all the parties notwithstanding . The few who've managed to land up tickets are politically linked - to their fathers or godfathers. It has a lot to do with the lack of political activity at the College/ University level. Given the fact that a substantial chunk of voters comprises youth, their low representation enhances the flaws of our democracy.

8..Manifestos - were published as an after thought in the last 10 days or so . And mostly were a sort of rebuttal to the other. BSP went to the other extreme of not having a manifesto at all. Both these have a long term impact on our polity - that of scuttling the political debate or not having it at all.

9. Many new techniques( not always commendable ) were applied this time out viz. addressing the rallies on mobile phone ; hiring political workers , using children in campaign, releasing ads on spitritual chhanels etc..

10 The lack of zing this time out is also due to the abridged notification period .

11.. Electioneering was more focused in slums and rural areas - the middle classes were not as active participants as they ought to be( esp. in an assembly e lections ).

12. Media lacked maturity (Viz. the use of the hideous concept of impact feature.) - it is all the more reprehensible given that it MP is a developing state and needs responsible press more than others. 13. Relatively peaceful elections- in paticular due to the comparitively peaceful Chambal region. ( Sunil Nayak's murder was an aberration ).

14.Overall higher percentage but marginally less voters ; higher percentage by women and some rural areas - all this points to a slight anti - incumbency against the BJP.

15 Dummy candidates have been used not merely as covers but also to hedge expenses etc. This needs to be sorted out.

16. Relative disconnect of the major parties with the people - reflected in major issues not becoming key factors.(Viz.Coruption, malnutrition etc. )