BUREAUCRATS CONTESTING ELECTIONS A NO-NO

The Indian bureaucracy is supposed to be a neutral ( faceless) one - unlike the committed bureaucracy of Russia and partaker of the spoils system in the US . However , of late , it has started behaving as a committed bureaucracy during its tenure and partaker of the spoils( fruits of commitment ) after superannuation. This is a very unhealthy sign for our democracy and should be castigated. Though there is no law a gainst a bureaucrat contesting elections ( nor can there ever be ) but it can be amply discouraged by the civil society, media and others. It is somewhat of a lesser evil if a bureaucrat contests after resigning from service ( much before securing his pension ) or is invited to the Rajya Sabha -if his work was exceptional -or if he contests as an independent. However, it is abominable if he serves his full term as a bureaucrat and then plunges into elections via a political outfit. That somewhat puts a question mark on his neutrality during his career. Bhagirath Prasad contesting from Morena on Congres ticket is a case in point.

NETI, NETI COALITIONS

Virtually all the coalitions till date have been formed on a negative basis - on defeating the Congress ( 1977 ), keeping Ram Mandir- Common civil code -Article 370 off( 1998 ) or defeating the communal forces ( 2004 ) and so on.In a way it is like vedas defining god-as neti,neti ( not that, not this .. )... This time out too - the loose coalition by the name of third front is based on keeping the Congress & the BJP out.This approach could be good for religion but is negative for politics So, till the coalitions are formed on a positive agenda - they may be the lesser evil( but are evil all the same).

LYNGDOH'S SUGGESTIONS

M.S.Lyngdoh , the former Chief Election Commissioner has come up with two suggestions regarding electoral reforms. Firstly , he suggests that 50% of the seats be decided on the basis of proportional representation and in the remaining seats there should be a refrendum like second round of voting among the two candidates who poll the highest votes in the first round. His plea is that this will ensure a minimum representation for all sections of the society and also preclude the present state wherein many candidates get elected by polling as low as 20 % vo tes in a multipronged contest . My take on it is that the first idea is not tenable since it'll further divide our already fractured society( Mahatma Gandhi had opposed a similar idea of Ambedkar in having seperate constituencies for the scheduled castes on the same basis ; instead we settled for reserved constituencies ) ; as for the second idea- it is an interesting one - in my view , it could be tried out in all those constituencies where the winning candidate polls less than 33% votes.

THIRD, SECOND OR FIRST FRONT ?

The third front is a somewhat unique crea tion of Indian politics.In the hardcore western world of UK & US, it is a two party system all the way; In Europe, one does see multiparty system in a few coun tries - the closest that comes to the Indian model is that of Italy with its multiparty coalitions ( no wonder it is similar to India in may other w ays ) ; however , what is uni que about the Indian third front is its fluidity, its flexibility , heterogeniety - its ability to reinvent and rise from the ashes like the phoenix every time around the Lok Sabha elections. Another interesting aspect in which it differs from the Italian model is that it is formed not so much on any positive aspects or i d eologic al synchronicity but with the negative common ground of defeating- CONG., BJP or both. All in all, it is a very healthy trend for Indian democracy in the long run - eventhough the westernised Indians bred on the two party concept find it apalling- as it will truly reflect the plurality and diversilty of Indian polity. In a s ense this will be India's gift to the world - a new way of looking at politics. However, that 'll be true only when it bec omes a fairly permanent entity will some sort of positive ideological meeting ground.As for the fro nt taking offence to being labelled the third front - it does make sense . Post emergency the third front has operated in cycles coming to power every third time .in that case it bec omes the first front - a difference from this time is that in all those instances the coalition had taken some sort of concrete shape much before the elections - which is not the case this time out . A t this point in time , it is any body's guess whether the front comprising non-UPA , non- NDA parties will end up being the first, second or the third front .

VIBHISHAN PA RTY

Now that the Lok Sabha elections have been announced , it is time to launch a Vibhishan Pa rty comprising those who are not actually in the party they're enrolled in while being really in the party they're not enrolled in.Their members come to the fore after the elections; in the coalition era , their numbers may actually be the largest.
For all you know , such a party may already e xist - some sort of virtual party, that is.

( As told to me by Mr. Wakankar )

LIKELY COMBINATIONS & PERMUTATIONS

Based on my predictions, various likely permutations and combinations
are :
1.If BJP gets the upper limit (103 seats) and BJSP gets the lower limit (18 seats) Uma Bharti would ask for a different CM ( other than Shivraj Singh ) and major portfolios.
2.If BJP gets the lower limit (98 seats) and BJSP gets the upper limit -(22seats) Uma Bharti may fancy becoming the CM supported by the BJP.
3. If BJP gets the middle limit(100 seats) and BJSP gets the middle limit(20seats) -Uma Bharti may be offered Chief ministership provided she joins the BJP.
4. If Congress gets the upper limit (93 seats) and SP(5 seats) and BSP too get the upper limit(12 seats) - then CONG and SP could form a coalition govt. with GGP & Others with BSP support from outside.
5. If Congress exceeds the upper limit (93 seats) and SP (5 seats) and BSP get the upper limit (12 seats) - then CONG. and SP could form a coalition govt. with BSP staying neutral.
6. REMOTE POSSIBILITY :If BJP gets less than its lower limit
(98 seats) and BJSP too gets lower than its lower limit (18 seats) then BSP might support BJP- to keep Congress out of power.
7.WILD POSSIBILITY : If Congress gets the lower limit (85 seats)
, BJSP the upper limit (22 seats) and SP(5 seats) then Congress alongwith SP would support Uma Bharti to become the CM.

N.B: In these elections BSP would be in a win-win situation. Its
response would depend upon how close these blocks (Cong -SP& BJP-BJSP ) get to the magic figure of 115.If it supports the former , it can extract some immediate benefits from the centre and if it bails out the latter , it can gain some points in the Lok Sabha elections.

FINAL PREDICTIONS

BJP is likely to win 98 - 103 seats ; Congress may garner between 85-93; BJSP would come in third with 18-22 seats and BSP may be the surprise package with 10 –12 seats.; SP could corner 3-5 seats and GGP could land up 2-4;others might secure 1-3 seats.